Semiconductor Volatility 2026: Samsung and TSMC in Downturn After Record Highs—Micron and SanDisk Sold Out

Memory chip prices doubled in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the previous quarter, driven by strong demand for high-end memory chips for AI systems, particularly for Nvidia chipsets. Market research institute TrendForce predicted in late March 2026 a further price increase of up to 63% for the second quarter, as AI data centers put supply chains under considerable pressure.

Trillion-Dollar Market Capitalizations in May

SK Hynix joined the exclusive circle of companies with a market capitalization exceeding one trillion US dollars in May 2026. Samsung and Micron had already reached this milestone previously. According to Reuters, TSMC belonged to only three Asian companies to ever cross this valuation threshold. The high valuations reflected expectations that the AI boom would provide sustained support to the semiconductor industry.

Bear Market in July: Over 20% Price Losses

On July 7, 2026, Micron fell together with Samsung, SK Hynix, and the Roundhill Memory ETF by more than 20% compared to recent closing highs – a technical signal for a bear market. AMD, Intel, and other semiconductor stocks extended their losses as the sell-off deepened across the sector. The turnaround occurred abruptly: one of the hottest trades of 2026 transformed into a massive sell-off within a few weeks.

Sold-Out Capacity Despite Price Decline

NAND flash memory – a technology for data storage in SSDs and USB sticks – remained in strong demand despite stock market turbulence. By August 7, 2026, SanDisk, Micron, and Samsung had sold out their entire NAND flash production capacity for 2026. SK Hynix expected to sell off its own inventories by year-end. The bottlenecks primarily affected smartphones, laptops, and automobiles, while AI data centers received preferential supply.

TSMC Forecasts: Growth and Setback

Analysts published forecasts on August 10, 2026, predicting that TSMC – Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world's largest chip contract manufacturer – could achieve 42% growth for the full year 2026 and 32% for 2027. Another forecast from October 1, 2026, expected a significant share price increase following the earnings announcement scheduled for October 15, and positioned the company for "another strong year in 2027".

On October 7, 2026, however, the TSMC share price fell 2.09% in regular trading. The decline coincided with Elon Musk's announcements regarding the Terafab project, in which TSMC is to play only a limited role. The market reaction showed how sensitive semiconductor stocks are to individual project announcements.

Market Environment Remains Tense

The DAX traded at 25,104.36 points (-1.35%), the NASDAQ Composite at 27,538.69 points (-0.22%), and the S&P 500 at 7,801.77 points (-0.22%) on October 7, 2026. The moderate decline in the major indices shows that semiconductor volatility in October 2026 did not occur in isolation, but was part of a broader market uncertainty.

The semiconductor industry faces a balancing act: on one hand, fundamental demand for AI chips and memory solutions remains high, as evidenced by sold-out production capacity. On the other hand, the rapid valuation correction in July 2026 showed that investors have doubts about the sustainability of profit margins and the pricing power of manufacturers. Whether the recovery forecasts for TSMC and other industry leaders materialize will be shown in upcoming quarterly reports – the next important date is TSMC's quarterly report on October 15, 2026.