SpaceX trades 15% above IPO price after four months – historical data signals volatility

SpaceX trades around 15 percent above its IPO price of $135 USD, at which the company went public in June, as of 16 October 2026. The stock thus stands at approximately $155 USD. However, historical data on comparable mega-IPOs point to substantial volatility in the first year.

The largest IPO of all time

SpaceX went public in 2026 with a valuation of around $1.75 to $1.77 trillion USD, thereby displacing Saudi Aramco from 2019 as the largest IPO in history. The company priced shares at $135 USD and raised up to $75 billion USD in capital. The valuation corresponded at that time to 94 times the 2025 revenue and approximately 73 times consensus estimates for 2026, which ranged between $22 and $24 billion USD.

What history shows for mega-IPOs

Market data on previous mega-IPOs paint a sobering picture: large companies often deliver weaker performance than expected following their IPO. The general pattern in IPOs shows a sharp price increase on the first trading day, followed by substantial underperformance as initial euphoria fades. This effect tends to be even more pronounced in larger companies.

For mega-cap IPOs, historical data reveal an average decline of 50 percent versus the IPO price over the course of the first year. Based on this historical average, the SpaceX share would decline to approximately $67.50 USD over the first year.

Analyst forecasts for 2026

Analysts forecast share prices between $75 and $200 USD for the first trading year, depending on market conditions and operational execution. In optimistic scenarios, the stock could reach $200 USD or higher if Starlink growth accelerates and Starship achieves commercial readiness. Pessimistic assessments point to underperformance, though no specific price targets were provided.

An alternative valuation perspective relates the SpaceX valuation to 25 times 2027 revenue based on enterprise value. This multiple was described as comparable to Anthropic's valuation in its latest funding round.

Classification for long-term investors

Analysts point out that while historical patterns suggest near-term declines, long-term oriented investors should focus more on SpaceX's longer-term potential than on near-term volatility. The performance to date of 15 percent above the IPO price after four months thus deviates positively from the historical average, though the critical phase of the first year remains incomplete.

The company operates in a market environment with elevated valuations for technology and aerospace companies. The question of whether SpaceX can meet high expectations hinges significantly on operational developments at Starlink and Starship, as well as general market conditions.