Old Market Indicators Useless Since ChatGPT Launch? Fund Manager Launches ETFs for New Metrics
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Key Takeaways
- Kristof Gleich of Harbor Capital Advisors argued on October 3, 2026, that traditional economic indicators no longer reflect the stock market since ChatGPT's launch in November 2022.
- Harbor Capital Advisors launched the 800VDC AI Datacenter Ecosystem ETF (NYSE ARCA: HUMM) with a net expense ratio of 0.49 percent in response to the alleged decoupling of market indicators.
- OpenAI released ChatGPT on November 22, 2022, and reached 100 million users within two months.
- Spenser Lerner of Harbor Capital estimated planned infrastructure investments by hyperscalers and data center operators through the end of the decade at nearly one trillion US dollars.
- According to Harbor Capital, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) moved largely flat after November 2022, while the S&P 500 rose significantly, though 24/7 Wall St. could not independently verify this.
Kristof Gleich, president and chief investment strategist at Harbor Capital Advisors, claimed on October 3, 2026, that traditional economic indicators that investors have relied on for decades no longer reflect the stock market since ChatGPT's launch in November 2022. In response to this decoupling, the fund company launched the 800VDC AI Datacenter Ecosystem ETF (NYSE ARCA: HUMM) with a net expense ratio of 0.49 percent.
Manufacturing PMI diverges from market since November 2022
Gleich presented the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) as evidence, a survey that measures the growth or decline of factory activity. The PMI had historically moved in parallel with the S&P 500, but has decoupled since November 2022: while factory indicators remained largely flat, the market rose significantly. The news site 24/7 Wall St. noted that it could not independently verify this divergence and characterized it as an argument put forth by Harbor Capital Advisors.
According to Gleich, the AI economy requires "different frameworks, different benchmarks, new units of measurement, and a different language to describe, measure, and invest in it." The S&P 500 was trading at 7,722.72 points on October 2, 2026, after a gain of 0.73 percent.
One trillion in AI infrastructure investments by 2030
Spenser Lerner, head of multi-asset solutions at Harbor Capital, breaks down the expected AI boom into phases. The first phase through the end of the decade focuses on building infrastructure. Lerner estimated planned investments by hyperscalers and data center operators in AI infrastructure at nearly one trillion US dollars. The 800VDC AI Datacenter Ecosystem ETF was explicitly developed in response to the belief that traditional economic indicators no longer work in the post-ChatGPT economy.
ChatGPT reached 100 million users in two months
OpenAI released ChatGPT to the general public on November 22, 2022. The tool reached 100 million users within two months. Unlike earlier AI applications, users could directly ask questions and received clear, conversational answers instead of a list of links. Naseem Husain, senior vice president and ETF strategist at Horizons ETFs, explained in August 2026 that "with ChatGPT's launch in late 2022, the true extent of its disruptive potential became clearer worldwide in 2023."
Commercial interests behind the indicator thesis
The sources explicitly point to commercial interests behind Harbor Capital's argument. While the claim about broken indicators contains real analytical statements, there is a commercial motive: Harbor sells products based on this thesis. Investors, particularly those near retirement, should consider both the analytical argument and the commercial interest behind it.
AI-powered ETFs already came to market in early 2023. Testing, however, revealed limitations: ChatGPT could not identify existing AI ETFs like AIEQ at that time, even though "AI Powered" was in the product name. The limitation was attributed to ChatGPT's "limited knowledge" of events after 2021.