Semiconductor Volatility 2026: Samsung and TSMC Post Record Slump – Micron and SanDisk Sold Out

Memory chip prices doubled in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the previous quarter, driven by strong demand for high-end memory chips for AI systems, particularly for Nvidia chipsets. Analysts forecast in May 2026 a further price increase of up to 63% for the second quarter, as AI data centres noticeably strained supply chains.

Billion-Dollar Market Capitalizations in May

SK Hynix entered the exclusive circle of companies with a market capitalization exceeding one billion US dollars in May 2026. Samsung and Micron had already reached this milestone previously. According to Reuters, TSMC was among only three Asian companies that have ever crossed this valuation threshold. The high valuations reflected expectations that the AI boom would sustainably support the semiconductor industry.

Bear Market in July: Over 20% Share Price Losses

On 7 July 2026, Micron fell together with Samsung, SK Hynix and the Roundhill Memory ETF by more than 20% from recent closing price highs – a technical signal for a bear market. AMD, Intel and other semiconductor stocks extended their losses, while the sell-off deepened across the sector. The reversal occurred abruptly: one of the hottest trades of 2026 transformed into a massive sell-off within weeks.

Sold-Out Capacity Despite Share Price Decline

NAND flash memory – a technology for data storage in SSDs and USB sticks – remained in strong demand despite stock market turbulence. By 7 August 2026, SanDisk, Micron and Samsung had sold out their entire NAND flash production capacity for 2026. SK Hynix expected to sell its inventories by year-end. The bottlenecks primarily affected smartphones, laptops and automobiles, while AI data centres were preferentially supplied.

TSMC Forecasts: Growth and Setback

Analysts published forecasts on 10 August 2026 predicting that TSMC – Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world's largest contract manufacturer for chips – could achieve growth of 42% for the remainder of 2026 and 32% for 2027. Another forecast from 1 October 2026 expected significant share price gains following the earnings release planned for 15 October and positioned the company for "another strong year in 2027".

On 8 October 2026 – today – the TSMC share price, however, lost 2.09% in regular trading. The decline coincided with Elon Musk's announcements regarding the Terafab project, in which TSMC is expected to play only a limited role. The market reaction illustrated how sensitive semiconductor stocks are to individual project announcements.

Market Environment Remains Tense

The DAX stood at 25,121.5 points on 7 October 2026 (–0.91%), the NASDAQ Composite at 27,538.69 points (–0.22%) and the S&P 500 at 7,801.77 points (–0.22%). The moderate decline at the major indices shows that semiconductor volatility in October 2026 did not occur in isolation, but was part of a broader market uncertainty.

The semiconductor industry faces a balancing act: on one hand, fundamental demand for AI chips and memory solutions remains high, as reflected in sold-out production capacities. On the other hand, the rapid valuation correction in July 2026 has shown that investors harbour doubts about the sustainability of manufacturers' profit margins and pricing power. Whether recovery forecasts for TSMC and other industry leaders materialise will be shown in the coming quarterly reports – the next key date is TSMC's quarterly report on 15 October 2026.