AI Shopping Agents: Visa and Mastercard as Potential Winners?

Artificial intelligence is fundamentally transforming online shopping: AI agents are increasingly taking over purchasing decisions for consumers – from automatically reordering household items to booking rides. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research estimates that in the US alone, consumer spending in categories that are highly suited for "agentic commerce" – defined as low-risk repeat purchases – amounts to around 2.6 trillion US dollars. The analysts see this development as a structural shift in commerce that affects payment flows, advertising budgets and fraud prevention equally.

Payment networks as clear winners

Visa and Mastercard are among the potential winners of this upheaval. More online transactions – including small purchases that were previously handled in cash or offline – could bring additional revenue to the payment networks. Goldman Sachs calculates: every increase in agent-based penetration in card-based offline commerce of 2 percentage points could boost e-commerce growth by around one percentage point.

Visa is already developing concrete solutions for automated payments. With "Visa Intelligent Commerce," the company is integrating payment data, controls, authentication and protection mechanisms directly into automated purchasing processes to execute AI-initiated transactions securely and reliably. The announcement was made on 4 September 2026.

Payment processors such as Stripe, Adyen and Checkout are also identified as beneficiaries of growing transaction volumes. The central thesis: value increasingly follows consumer purchase intent. As this intent will in future be expressed less through search engines, online shops or apps, but rather through AI agents, advertising budgets, payment flows, identity verification and merchant fees shift accordingly.

Trust decides market success

Mastercard research results show that it is not the companies with the most grandiose AI promises that will win the race, but rather those that make autonomous payments secure, regulated and useful in everyday life. Consumers use agent-based shopping primarily for routine, recurring tasks – particularly for household supplies, where agents replenish inventory within consumer-set limits at authorised retailers. This everyday use creates habits, which is why the first payment experience is critical for long-term acceptance.

Goldman Sachs identifies five key capabilities that determine success or failure: sales strength, consumer confidence, merchant connectivity, transaction infrastructure and the ability to capture commercial intent. Large marketplaces positioned in the middle of every transaction are also ranked as likely winners.

Fraud prevention as a bottleneck

Traditional rule-based systems for fraud detection are reaching their limits in the new environment. Transactions are increasingly characterised by contextual signals, consumer behaviour and AI-driven commerce flows. Banks currently reject payments worldwide worth around 30 billion US dollars annually as fraudulent by mistake – a friction loss that will worsen in a world where AI agents initiate purchases without traditional card template signals.

Google has launched the "Agent Payments Protocol," which is supported by more than 60 organisations. In parallel, fraud prevention companies are developing tools to identify and stop malicious agents.

From household essentials to luxury goods: staggered rollout

Goldman Sachs expects low-risk, low-complexity categories to be taken over by agents first. Products with relatively low brand loyalty – such as stationery, cleaning products, packaged food and groceries in general – can be reordered by agents based on historical purchase data, prices, inventory levels and delivery speed. Ride services, restaurant reservations and delivery services also meet the requirements for early adoption.

Most difficult to automate are purchases with high personalisation and high error costs: shoes, jewellery, certain clothing, luxury goods, travel, hotels and flights require more sophisticated authorisation, confirmation and liability rules. Overall rollout depends on transaction complexity and the cost of incorrect decisions; the process is likely to extend over three to five years or longer.

Pilot projects in retail are increasing

According to an analysis from 28 April 2026, 43 percent of retailers were testing AI shopping agents at that time. The sectors affected range from e-commerce to digital advertising and payment processing, as well as identity verification, fraud prevention and cybersecurity.

Structural change with winners and losers

The migration of purchase intent from search fields, retail websites and apps to AI agent interfaces shifts not only payment flows but also advertising budgets and merchant distribution fees. Companies that control transaction infrastructure – particularly Visa and Mastercard – are positioning themselves for a central role in this new commerce architecture. Whether they can sustain this role in the long term depends on their ability to integrate security, user-friendliness and trust into autonomous payment processes.