US Stocks Rise After Iran Ceasefire: Recovery Already Under Pressure

The US and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire that came together just before the expiration of an ultimatum from US President Donald Trump. The agreement also includes the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important global oil transport routes.

Immediate Market Reaction: DAX Jumps Nearly Five Percent

Global stock markets responded immediately to the ceasefire announcement with significant capital gains. The DAX rose nearly five percent at the start of trading, representing one of the strongest daily performances in recent months. Stock exchanges in East Asia also recorded strong gains – trading at the South Korean exchange had to be temporarily suspended as price movements exceeded technical thresholds.

Investors' relief is based on the hope that escalation in the Middle East has been halted for the time being. The confrontation between the US and Iran, along with associated Israeli attacks on Iran and its counter-strikes on regional states, had weighed on markets since the end of February 2026.

Oil Prices Fall – But Remain at Elevated Levels

The reaction in the energy market was particularly pronounced. The price for a barrel (159 liters) of North Sea Brent crude oil with delivery in June plummeted rapidly following the ceasefire announcement. Recently sharply rising oil prices declined significantly, which provided additional support to stock exchanges.

Despite the decline, oil prices remain roughly one-third higher than before the start of military hostilities in late February. Fuel prices at gas stations remained at elevated levels despite the oil price decline, continuing to burden consumers in the DACH region (Germany, Austria, Switzerland).

Profit-Taking Sets In Just One Day Later

The initial euphoria proved short-lived. Following the very strong recovery, Asian exchanges already gave back significant gains the following Thursday. On Wall Street, considerable weakness emerged shortly after the opening of trading: the S&P 500 traded 1.4 percent lower, the Nasdaq 100 lost 1.9 percent.

The rapid profit-taking suggests that investors view the two-week ceasefire as too short and uncertain to justify a sustainable recovery. Volatility – a measure of price fluctuations – remains elevated as a result.

Historical Patterns Point to Recovery Potential

Historical studies of geopolitical crises suggest a recurring pattern: strong stock market recoveries often follow geopolitical shocks. Analysts point out that stock markets frequently return to being driven more strongly by fundamental factors such as corporate earnings and economic data after periods of political and economic uncertainty.

However, it remains unclear whether this pattern will apply in the current case. The two-week duration of the ceasefire is relatively short, and a lasting solution to the conflict is not in sight. Should the ceasefire not be extended or converted into a permanent agreement, uncertainty would likely quickly return.

Assessment: Between Hope and Caution

The market reaction to the ceasefire shows the typical tension between short-term relief and long-term uncertainty. The significant capital gains on the first day reflect the hope that escalation has been avoided. However, rapid profit-taking the following day shows that many investors remain skeptical.

For investors in the DACH region (Germany, Austria, Switzerland), this means: volatility is likely to remain elevated in the coming weeks. Whether the recovery proves sustainable will depend largely on whether the ceasefire is extended and whether a diplomatic solution to the conflict comes within reach. Until then, markets are likely to fluctuate between hope and caution.