US earnings season starts with bank results and inflation data
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Key Takeaways
- The four major banks JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo will release their quarterly results before market open on Tuesday, October 13, 2026.
- Analysts expect JPMorgan Chase to report earnings per share of around $5.94 for the third quarter.
- Economists expect consensus annual inflation of 3.6 percent in the Consumer Price Index for September, up from 3.4 percent in the previous month.
- ASML Holding reports on Wednesday on its completed quarter, while TSMC releases its results before market open on Thursday.
- Tesla plans an event this week to present the next generation of its Roadster sports car.
- The yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds recently traded near 5.2 percent – the highest level since 2007.
US earnings season begins on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, with results from four major banks: JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo will release their third-quarter results simultaneously before market open. In parallel, the US Department of Labor will publish consumer price data for September on Wednesday, October 15 – a combination that should provide investors with important signals about the development of the US economy and the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy.
JPMorgan Chase opens bank earnings season
JPMorgan Chase will be in the spotlight on Tuesday. Analysts expect consensus earnings per share of around $5.94 for the third quarter. The development of net interest income and potential statements on credit quality in the consumer business will be crucial. For the banking industry overall, observers expect earnings growth of about 10 percent, which corresponds to historical average levels.
Beyond the raw numbers, investors are focusing their attention on management's assessment of the condition of US consumers. The four major institutions are regarded as barometers for consumer sentiment, as they have detailed data on spending, borrowing, and repayment behaviour.
In addition to the four major banks, Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth Group will also publish their quarterly results on Tuesday. Additional financial institutions follow during the week: Charles Schwab and US Bank are also on the reporting calendar.
Inflation data as a guide for Fed policy
On Wednesday, October 15, the US Department of Labor publishes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September. Economists expect consensus annual inflation of 3.6 percent, up from 3.4 percent in the previous month. A significantly higher figure could reignite expectations for another interest rate hike at the next Fed meeting on October 27 and 28.
On Thursday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales for September follow. Both datasets serve analysts as a gauge of whether inflation is accelerating again and whether consumer purchasing power remains intact. Additionally, industrial production and regional manufacturing indices will be published during the week.
Semiconductor heavyweights in focus
ASML Holding reports on Wednesday, October 14, before market open on its completed quarter. Analysts expect earnings per share of $12.54. The Dutch company is regarded as the leading supplier of lithography systems for chip manufacturing and is at the centre of the semiconductor supply chain. Observers are particularly interested in demand for EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography) systems in the context of artificial intelligence as well as the company's order outlook for 2027.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world's largest semiconductor contract manufacturer, will release results on Thursday, October 15, before market open. The consensus estimate is earnings per share of $4.48. The company's forecasts for demand for AI chips and the utilisation of its most advanced manufacturing lines are regarded as the most important indicator for the semiconductor industry as a whole.
The semiconductor quarterly reports come at a delicate time: in the previous week, a report about weaker revenue expectations at OpenAI triggered a slide in chip manufacturer share prices. According to industry reports, OpenAI's annualised revenue is approximately $20 billion below previous estimates.
Tesla unveils new Roadster
Tesla plans an event this week at which the electric car manufacturer will present the next generation of its Roadster sports car. A specific date for the presentation has not been announced. The National Retail Federation will also publish its forecast for the 2026 Christmas shopping season during the week.
Market environment remains tense
Markets start an eventful week under tense conditions. The yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds recently traded near 5.2 percent – the highest level since 2007. Brent crude oil cost around $91 per barrel, driven by ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Both factors weigh on stock markets, which had previously risen towards their all-time highs.
On Monday, October 12, the US stock market will be open for the Columbus Day holiday, but the bond market will be closed. Neither economic data nor company reports are on the calendar, so observers expect quiet trading, characterised by the holiday absence of many market participants.
For the third quarter, analysts expect S&P 500 earnings growth of about 30 percent year-over-year overall. The broad market index stood at 7,811.54 points on October 9, 2026 at 2:00 CEST, up 0.59 percent from the previous day's close. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite stood at 27,366.17 points at the same time (up 0.64 percent since the previous day's close), and the DAX at 25,172 points (up 0.79 percent since the previous day's close).