Tech Stocks: AI Drives Growth to New Heights

Swiss banking giant UBS forecasted in its investment outlook for 2026, published on November 20, 2025, an increase in the S&P 500 to 7,700 points, representing a gain of approximately 15%. In the optimistic scenario of a sustained technology boom, the bank sees the leading index even at 8,400 points. Artificial intelligence and the technology sector thus remain the dominant drivers of global equity markets.

Technology Sector with Structural Overweight

According to UBS, the information technology sector already accounts for 28% of the MSCI AC World Index – a historically high weight that underscores the central role of tech stocks in global portfolios. The analyst firm Wedbush expects technology stocks to rise by more than 20% in the current year, driven by the next phase of artificial intelligence development in software, semiconductors, and infrastructure.

Growth forecasts for the global economy vary by region: the USA is expected to grow by 1.7%, the eurozone by 1.1%, while the Asia-Pacific region should achieve around 5% growth. For investors in the DACH region, this means a stronger focus on international tech stocks, as European technology companies remain underrepresented in the global top tier.

From AI Vision to Measurable Monetization

A decisive shift is currently taking place in artificial intelligence: it is already generating real revenues and moving out of the pure investment phase into commercial application. Meta is deploying AI in digital advertising, Microsoft is marketing intelligent cloud solutions, Amazon uses AI for personalized product recommendations.

The scaling at Google is particularly impressive: token usage – a metric for processing AI queries – rose from May to October 2025 from 480 trillion to 1,300 trillion tokens. This represents nearly a tripling in just five months. Over an 18-month period, token usage grew more than 130-fold.

Despite massive investments in AI infrastructure, profit margins for major technology companies remain stable at approximately 27%. This refutes concerns that AI expansion would structurally burden profitability. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman forecasts annual recurring revenue for his company of 100 billion US dollars by 2027, compared to an estimated 13 billion US dollars in 2025.

Macroeconomic Dimension of AI Transformation

Consulting firms PwC and McKinsey expect that AI applications could create up to 15 trillion US dollars of additional global value by 2030. For comparison: this roughly equals the entire current economic output of the European Union. This forecast is based on productivity gains through automation, more efficient decision-making processes, and new business models.

For private investors in the DACH region, the question of valuation arises: many AI-focused technology stocks are already trading at historically high levels. Morningstar warns that artificial intelligence stocks require even stronger growth to justify their high valuations. Investors should therefore differentiate between short-term euphoria and long-term fundamentals.

Individual Tech Stocks in Focus

The analyst firm Wedbush has published specific forecasts for leading technology companies. Tesla is expected to launch robotaxis in over 30 cities in 2026 and commence mass production of Cybercabs. The analysts see price targets of 600 US dollars in the base case and 800 US dollars in the optimistic case.

However, EFC AG points to a structural risk in its annual outlook: today's winners are not necessarily tomorrow's winners. The company cites Nvidia as an example, whose central role in the AI ecosystem was hardly foreseeable in 2013, while Apple was then the undisputed technology leader. The economic transformation through AI will be real, but will unfold differently than many investors currently expect.

Account for Risks and Volatility

At the beginning of 2026, Morningstar expects continued volatility in the US market. The high concentration on a few large technology stocks harbors cluster risks: price declines in the heavyweights have a disproportionate impact on broadly diversified indices. The SMI reflects this tech dominance only to a limited extent, so Swiss investors must rely on the MSCI World, the S&P 500, or specialized technology ETFs for tech exposure.

Currency risks play an additional role for investors from the DACH region: most leading technology companies are listed in US dollars. A weakening of the dollar against the euro or Swiss franc would diminish returns in local currency, even if stock prices rise in dollars.

EFC AG recommends maintaining a balanced investment strategy despite the positive outlook for tech stocks. Diversification across sectors and regions remains essential to prevent concentration-related risks. The history of the technology industry shows that market leadership can be volatile and may shift faster than many investors expect.