Swiss Stock Market
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Key Takeaways
- The SMI closed lower in early April 2026, with UBS shares in particular coming under pressure following the publication of annual results.
- The Federal Government's Expert Group on Economic Forecasts projects economic growth of just 1.0% for 2026 (previously 1.1%).
- Kühne+Nagel and Asmallworld showed strength, while Amrize and Montana Aerospace presented themselves more weakly.
- According to Vontobel, Swiss watch manufacturers have scope to cushion the impact of tariff burdens.
- The yield curve has flattened noticeably as of 20 March 2026, with yields on two-year government bonds rising.
The Swiss leading index SMI closed lower on 2 April 2026 after UBS shares in particular revealed operational weaknesses following the announcement of annual results. The rocky start to the 2026 stock exchange year thus continues and confirms cautious economic forecasts for the Swiss economy.
Weak start to the stock exchange year despite strong year-end 2025
Following a vigorous final sprint at the end of 2025, Swiss securities came under pressure in the first quarter of 2026. According to Basel Cantonal Bank, the start to the 2026 stock exchange year was extremely rocky – a pattern already observed in the previous year. At that time, the topic of import tariffs caused considerable turbulence in the markets, but lost significantly in impact after a few months.
The current weakness is concentrated mainly on individual securities: UBS shares showed operational weaknesses after the publication of annual results. On the winning side are the logistics group Kühne+Nagel and the social network platform Asmallworld, both of which remained in demand. Amrize and aerospace supplier Montana Aerospace presented themselves more weakly.
Economic forecasts for 2026 revised downward
The Federal Government's Expert Group on Economic Forecasts expects below-average economic growth of 1.0% for 2026 (December 2025 forecast: 1.1%). For 2027, experts expect an acceleration to 1.7%. The downward revision reflects dampened prospects for the Swiss economy and weighs on sentiment in the stock markets.
The persistent low-interest environment in Switzerland brings both challenges and opportunities, according to Zurich Cantonal Bank. The rapid adjustment of key interest rate expectations has in particular driven yields on two-year government bonds higher. As of 20 March 2026, the yield curve has flattened noticeably.
Tariffs burden Swiss watch industry only limited
Swiss watch manufacturers are under pressure from import tariffs, but have some scope to cushion costs. Jean-Philippe Bertschy, head of Swiss equities research at Vontobel, explains: "Swiss watch manufacturers will not pass all costs to the end consumer. They have some scope to cushion the tariffs."
Bertschy also sees positive signals from the USA: "The strong US stock market has partially offset the negative impact of tariffs." Looking ahead to 2026, the market for luxury watches in China could also recover, which would provide additional tailwind to the Swiss watch industry.
Selective opportunities despite challenging environment
Despite the rocky start and dampened economic forecasts, selective opportunities are available to investors in the Swiss stock market. In particular, the logistics sector with Kühne+Nagel shows strength, while the aerospace sector remains under pressure. Montana Aerospace was among the weaker shares, while US aerospace and defense group RTX generated significantly more revenue in the fourth quarter of 2025 than analysts expected – an indication of the different dynamics within the industry.
The coming months will show whether the Swiss stock market can recover from its weak annual performance or whether the dampened economic growth will continue to weigh on prices.