Strait of Hormuz blocked: 40 countries discuss reopening – What does it mean for oil ETFs?

Iran has brought shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a near standstill. On Thursday, 2 April 2026, around 40 countries discussed ways to reopen the strategically important waterway in a video conference on British initiative. British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper criticized Iran for holding the world economy hostage. The United Kingdom is coordinating diplomatic efforts to develop international solutions.

Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important?

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important oil transport routes. Through the narrow strait—only around 55 kilometres wide—between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula, a significant portion of global oil exports flows. A blockade has immediate consequences for international energy supply: storage levels in Europe fall while oil and gas prices rise.

Immediate market impact on oil prices

The blockade is driving oil prices higher. In the short term, market observers expect a breakout above the 200-day moving average line with a next target of 105 US dollars or higher. According to analyses, the oil price reacts strongly to geopolitical events such as this crisis, similar to the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict in 2022.

In the medium term, stabilization above 80 US dollars in 2027 is considered crucial for a bull scenario. In the long term, experts project a broad sideways range between 35 and 110 US dollars through 2030–2050, with the energy transition likely to have a dampening effect.

What does the crisis mean for oil ETFs?

Oil ETFs—exchange-traded funds that track the performance of oil stocks or oil futures—are currently experiencing significant volatility. The blockade creates a contradictory situation for investors: on the one hand, yield opportunities through rising oil prices; on the other hand, increased risks due to geopolitical uncertainty.

The oil price responds strongly to the interplay of geopolitical events, OPEC decisions, supply and demand, and general market conditions. These factors amplify each other in crisis situations and cause high price fluctuations. Investors in oil ETFs should prepare for volatility—the range of price fluctuations—to remain significantly elevated in the coming weeks.

Reactions from European governments

The energy crisis is forcing European governments to take swift action. Slovenia has rationed fuel, while Austria reduced fuel taxes and capped retail profit margins. According to media reports, EU finance ministers are examining more comprehensive measures, including price caps on oil and special taxes on windfall profits from energy companies.

In Germany and Switzerland, consumers are also feeling the crisis: heating oil prices are rising not only because of the tight supply situation but also due to existing CO₂ levies. For 2026, the CO₂ price was set in a corridor of 55 to 65 euros per tonne. Since one litre of heating oil emits approximately 2.66 to 2.68 kilograms of CO₂ during combustion, this results in a fixed price surcharge that further increases total costs.

Diplomatic options and outlook

The international community faces the challenge of finding a diplomatic solution without further escalating the crisis. The video conference coordinated by the United Kingdom on 2 April 2026 is a first step towards developing multilateral approaches. However, whether and when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen for shipping traffic remains uncertain.

For investors in oil ETFs, the situation remains characterized by high uncertainty. Short-term gains from rising oil prices stand against potential losses from a sudden de-escalation or additional market interventions. The coming weeks will show whether diplomatic efforts are successful or whether the blockade continues to put pressure on energy markets.