SpaceX IPO Could Be Largest Ever – Is It Worth Investing?

Dimensions of a Historic IPO

SpaceX is preparing for an IPO that could overshadow all previous IPO records. According to insiders, Elon Musk's aerospace company plans to go public in June 2026 and raise up to $75 billion in the process (according to Finanznachrichten.de). Alternative sources mention an issue volume of up to $50 billion.

For comparison: the previous record holder Saudi Aramco raised around $29.4 billion in its 2019 IPO. SpaceX would thus more than double this figure. The targeted company valuation is over $1.75 trillion – a remarkable increase considering that SpaceX was valued at around $350 billion at the end of 2024 (according to Computer Bild).

This makes SpaceX currently the most valuable private company in the world not listed on a stock exchange. The planned valuation would catapult SpaceX into a league with the world's largest publicly listed companies.

Business Model: More Than Just Rockets

SpaceX positions itself as a vertically integrated aerospace and technology company. The portfolio comprises three main business segments:

• Rocket launches: SpaceX is a leader in commercial and government rocket launches, including for NASA
• Starlink: The satellite internet division operates approximately 7,000 satellites as of September 2025 and serves over 8.5 million subscribers worldwide (according to Research Summary)
• xAI integration: The recent acquisition of AI division xAI expands the business into artificial intelligence

Starlink in particular is considered the growth driver and most profitable business unit. The rapidly growing satellite internet business reaches regions that traditional broadband providers cannot service economically. The combination of rocket infrastructure and satellite network gives SpaceX a structural competitive advantage.

Investment Opportunities and Past Performance

While the IPO is still ahead, some institutional investors have already been able to invest in SpaceX before the listing. A prominent example is the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust, an investment fund listed on the London stock exchange. This stake provided the trust with a return of over 1,000 percent (according to Manager Magazin).

For private investors in the German-speaking region, direct access to SpaceX shares has been virtually impossible so far. The upcoming IPO would open up an investment opportunity for a broader audience for the first time. However, demand is likely to be high – with prominent tech IPOs, it is typical for institutional investors to be served preferentially and private investors to have limited access.

Alternative Investment Routes

Investors seeking SpaceX exposure now can indirectly invest through funds such as the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust. This fund holds significant SpaceX positions and is traded on the London stock exchange. However, the fund's share price is subject to its own fluctuations and only partially reflects the SpaceX valuation.

Critical Voices on Valuation

Despite impressive growth, skeptical voices among analysts are increasing regarding the targeted valuation. The increase from $350 billion (end of 2024) to over $1.75 trillion within approximately eighteen months represents a quintupling – and this for a company that already held the highest valuation among private firms beforehand.

The integration of xAI in particular raises questions. While Musk paints a picture of a "vertically integrated innovation engine," observers worry that the AI acquisition could burden the highly profitable core business of rocket launches and satellite internet (according to Investment Week). The question is: do the synergies between aerospace and AI justify such a valuation premium?

Reuters also points out that a stock listing will significantly increase the intensity of analysis and scrutiny by investors. The "Muskconomy" – Elon Musk's interconnected corporate empire consisting of Tesla, SpaceX, X (formerly Twitter), and xAI – will then come under heightened scrutiny. Critics have long complained about the personal and financial entanglements between Musk's companies.

Market Environment and IPO Performance

The timing of the planned IPO falls into a challenging market environment. An index tracking IPO shares has lagged the broader market over the past twelve months (according to Reuters). Many tech IPOs from recent years disappointed after initial euphoria.

However, SpaceX has a much more mature operational base than typical tech startups. The company generates revenue from long-term NASA contracts and a growing customer base in Starlink. This combination of government contracts and commercial business could distinguish SpaceX from more volatile tech IPOs.

Opportunities and Risks for Investors

Opportunities

• Monopoly position in certain areas: SpaceX dominates the commercial rocket market and is building a global satellite network with Starlink that is difficult to replicate
• Growing aerospace market: The commercial aerospace industry is at the beginning of long-term expansion – from satellite internet to space tourism to potential Mars missions
• Profitable business model: Unlike many tech startups, SpaceX has established revenue streams and is considered profitable, particularly with Starlink
• Technology lead: Reusable rockets and vertical integration give SpaceX cost advantages over competitors

Risks

• Ambitious valuation: The targeted valuation of over $1.75 trillion assumes extraordinary growth – disappointments could lead to significant share price declines
• Dependence on Elon Musk: Musk himself is both the greatest strength and a risk factor – his attention is spread across multiple companies
• Regulatory uncertainty: Aerospace is subject to complex international regulations, and antitrust concerns could arise regarding Starlink's dominance
• Capital intensity: Aerospace requires massive investments – delays in projects like the Mars mission could be expensive
• Competition: Amazon is planning Project Kuiper as a competing satellite internet, and state actors like China are investing heavily in aerospace
• xAI integration: The acquisition could divert resources from the profitable core business without measurable synergies in the short term

Considerations for German-Speaking Investors

For investors in the German-speaking region, specific considerations arise. The IPO will likely take place on the New York NASDAQ, so SpaceX shares would be listed in US dollars. This means currency risk: if the dollar weakens against the euro or Swiss franc, this reduces returns in home currency – independent of stock performance.

Additionally, US stocks incur withholding taxes of 15 percent on dividends for German-speaking investors (provided SpaceX pays dividends at all, which is often not the case for growth companies). These can be partially offset through tax treaties.

Trading through European brokers is generally available, but fees for US stocks may be higher than for European securities. Trading times are also tied to New York exchange hours – for European investors, this means trading predominantly in the afternoon and evening.

Conclusion: Historic Opportunity With Significant Questions

The planned SpaceX IPO in June 2026 will undoubtedly rank among the most significant financial events of the year. The company has a unique market position, proven technology, and a profitable business model in a future-oriented market.

At the same time, the targeted valuation raises questions. A quintupling within eighteen months presupposes that SpaceX not only meets but exceeds high expectations. The integration of xAI, the entanglements within the "Muskconomy," and increasing competition in the satellite internet market are risk factors that investors should factor in.

For long-term oriented investors who believe in the future of commercial aerospace and can tolerate the volatility of an Elon Musk company, the IPO could represent an opportunity. However, those who are speculating on quick gains or view the valuation as excessive should wait to see how the stock develops after the initial hype.

A final assessment can only be made once SpaceX must disclose detailed financial data as part of the IPO process. Until then, the planned record-breaking IPO remains a mix of justified fascination and speculative exaggeration.