SMI and DAX Analysis

On April 2, 2026, the DAX traded at 22,637 points with a decline of 0.1 percent, after the German benchmark index had previously reached a new all-time high above the 25,500-point mark. The Swiss SMI stood at 12,516 points on the same day and gained 1.0 percent, while the broader SPI recorded a gain of 0.9 percent at 17,471 points.

DAX with 26,000-point target for 2026

DZ Bank has set an optimistic target of 26,000 points for the DAX. The forecast is based on expected earnings growth of between 13 and 15 percent for 2026. Analysts rate the financial, IT, and industrial sectors as particularly promising.

The DAX's development continues a multi-year track record of success. The index was able to carry forward the momentum from previous years into 2026 and mark a new all-time high in the process. The current level at 22,637 points is roughly 11 percent below DZ Bank's projected year-end target.

Valuation advantages of German equities

German equities are valued lower compared to US titles. According to experts, this valuation gap holds considerable upside potential. "If Germany finally experiences a noticeable economic recovery, the DAX has significantly greater valuation and catch-up potential," according to market observers. An economic recovery could narrow these valuation differences and enable additional price gains.

SMI with positive weekly performance

The SMI recorded a small gain in calendar week 14/2026 following three consecutive winning days – the second consecutive weekly gain. The performance of the 20 SMI individual stocks on April 2 varied: the range extended from Swisscom with minus 0.6 percent to Amrize with minus 2.3 percent.

Among individual stocks, clear performance differences emerged in March 2026. While stocks like Kühne+Nagel and Asmallworld were in demand, Amrize and Montana Aerospace showed weakness. This dispersion of individual performance is typical for phases in which investors are more selective and differentiate more strongly between individual stocks.

Geopolitical factors influence risk appetite

Market dynamics were heavily shaped by geopolitical developments. Hopes for an end to the Middle East conflict temporarily led to a more favorable sentiment at exchanges. Fading hopes for a quick resolution of the conflict, however, caused oil prices to rise again and shook the DAX. In such phases, investors reduce their risk appetite, which directly affects price developments.

Outlook for the German-speaking region

The different performance of DAX and SMI on April 2, 2026 – the DAX slightly negative, the SMI significantly positive – shows the independent dynamics of the two markets. While the DAX is more dependent on economic expectations and Germany's economic recovery, the SMI benefits from its composition with more defensive heavyweights and the stability of the Swiss market.

For investors in the DACH region, both indices offer different opportunity profiles: the DAX with higher valuation catch-up potential but greater economic sensitivity, the SMI with more stable development and lower volatility. Sector weightings play a central role – while the DAX has a stronger representation of industrial stocks and cyclical titles, the SMI is dominated by defensive sectors such as pharmaceuticals and consumer goods.