SMI and DAX Analysis

The SMI traded 0.12% lower at 13,200 points in pre-market trading on April 2, 2026, as calculated by Julius Bär around 8:15 a.m. Following initial losses, however, a sharp recovery set in mid-week: the Swiss lead index rose 214 points or 1.68% to 12,991 points on Wednesday.

Mixed Developments in Swiss Secondary Stocks

While the SMI made up its losses, the secondary stock indices showed weaker performance. The SMIM (Swiss Market Index Mid) recorded a decline of 1.12% to 2,919.79 points. The broadly based SPI fell 0.69% to 18,009.32 points. In the SMI, 18 losers faced only two winners, which clearly reflected the initial market weakness.

March Balance: Winners and Losers in the SMI

The past month of March 2026 brought a clear separation between winners and losers. Among the positively outstanding stocks were logistics company Kühne+Nagel and Asmallworld. On the losing side were Amrize and Montana Aerospace, which were burdened by significant price declines.

Dollar Weakness and Franc Strength in Focus

In foreign exchange markets, the downward trend of the US dollar continues. The Swiss franc is appreciating continuously, raising questions about possible responses from the Swiss National Bank (SNB). An overly strong franc appreciation can weigh on the competitiveness of Switzerland's export-oriented economy and may prompt the SNB to take monetary policy measures.

Parallel to the weak dollar, the gold price continues its record run. The precious metal benefits from both dollar weakness and ongoing market uncertainties that drive investors to safe havens.

Geopolitical Hopes Support Stock Market Expectations

Expectations for the SMI and DAX appear favorable, supported by hopes for an easing of the Middle East conflict. Asian stock markets also recorded gains, indicating improved global risk sentiment. Such geopolitical developments can have considerable short-term influence on investor risk appetite.

Interest Rate Policy Remains Central Driver

The monetary policy of major central banks remains a key factor influencing stock markets. Worldwide, there is pronounced "interest rate cut euphoria," particularly with regard to the US Federal Reserve. Rate cuts can support stock valuations because they reduce financing costs and make alternative investments such as bonds less attractive.

Beyond fundamental factors, technical aspects also play a role in short-term market developments. Trading volume, chart patterns, and technical indicators can provide clues about the further direction of the SMI and DAX. The dynamic recovery mid-week suggests that investors used pullbacks as entry points.

Outlook for the Coming Trading Days

Further developments in the SMI and DAX are likely to depend on several factors: the sustainability of geopolitical easing hopes, the development of the dollar-franc exchange rate, and possible central bank signals on interest rate policy. The strength of the Swiss franc remains a double-edged sword for the SMI, as while it increases purchasing power, it simultaneously burdens the export economy.

Investors in the DACH region should closely monitor developments in currency markets and possible SNB responses. An intervention by the national bank to weaken the franc could trigger short-term market movement.