SMI and DAX Analysis

Key Takeaways

• The DAX reached a new all-time high above 25,500 points in March 2026 and continues the recovery rally since 2022 (Source: Kagels Trading)
• VZ Bank forecasts a price performance of 5.3% for the SMI in 2026
• The Swiss economy is expected to grow by 1.1% in 2026, while investment activity remains flat in the first half (Source: Nume)
• DAX forecasts for 2026 range from 21,000 to 26,000 points, with current support at 24,000 points
• According to Wikifolio CEO Andreas Kern, traders see the USA slightly ahead of Germany in 2026 – economic development is decisive
• Investments in artificial intelligence and digitalization support the Swiss technology sector (Source: Vermögenszentrum)

DAX Sets New Record Above 25,500 Points

The German leading index DAX has continued its recovery movement from 2022 into the first quarter of 2026, marking a new all-time high above the 25,500 point level (as of March 2026, Source: Kagels Trading). This development is part of a series of records that have carried the index over several years.

Forecasts for the full year, however, show a wide range: analysts expect price targets between 21,000 and 26,000 points. This spread of 5,000 points illustrates the differing assessments of further developments. The 24,000 point level currently serves as technical support and could provide the index with a solid foundation.

Wikifolio trader Christian Scheid pinpoints the decisive variable: "Economic development is decisive." Wikifolio CEO Andreas Kern adds that traders see the USA slightly ahead of Germany in 2026. This assessment reflects uncertainty about the economic momentum in the eurozone, which continues to suffer from structural challenges.

SMI: Moderate Growth Expectations for 2026

For the Swiss leading index SMI, VZ Bank forecasts a price performance of 5.3% in 2026. This forecast is in the moderate range and reflects dampened growth prospects for the Swiss economy.

According to current forecasts, the Swiss economy is expected to grow by 1.1% (Source: Nume). This growth represents a slight improvement over earlier estimates and accounts for adjustment to changed international trade conditions. In particular, the reduction of US tariffs on Swiss products has improved the outlook for directly affected sectors (Source: Vermögenszentrum).

Investment activity, however, remains flat in the first half of 2026. The reason: planability for long-term projects is barely possible under the current volatile conditions (Source: Nume). Companies are holding back on investment decisions as long as economic framework conditions remain uncertain.

Sectoral Differences in Both Markets

Within the indices, clear sectoral differences emerge. The Swiss technology sector benefits from investments in artificial intelligence and digitalization (Source: Vermögenszentrum). These areas support SMI performance and offer growth potential despite the cautious overall economic environment.

In the German market, the high-voltage transmission business stands out as a growth driver. The service business in this sector is growing organically, particularly in Germany (Source: Basler Kantonalbank). A normalization of electricity prices would significantly improve earnings for 2026 and 2027 – a factor that could be relevant for individual DAX companies.

Uncertainty as a Determining Factor

Both indices are under the influence of macroeconomic uncertainties. While the DAX benefits from its technical strength and the achieved all-time high, the question remains whether the economy can support these valuations. The SMI is moving in a more moderate environment where moderate growth rates and cautious investment characterize the picture.

The broad spread of DAX forecasts between 21,000 and 26,000 points shows how differently analysts assess further developments. For investors in the DACH region, this means: markets are in a phase where short-term fluctuations are likely to remain. The fundamental development of the economy will determine whether the current index levels persist or whether corrections lie ahead.

The comparison between DAX and SMI shows two different market characters: Germany with its export-oriented economy and high volatility on one side, Switzerland with its more stable but moderate development on the other. Both markets remain dependent in 2026 on external factors – from the US economy to tariff policy and energy prices.