Old Market Indicators Broken Since ChatGPT Launch: Fund Manager Introduces New Indicator ETFs
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Key Takeaways
- Harbor Capital Advisors claims that traditional economic indicators such as the Manufacturing PMI lost their historical correlation with the S&P 500 following ChatGPT's launch in November 2022, though this divergence thesis has not been independently verified by external sources.
- In response to the diagnosed market shift, Harbor Capital launched the 800VDC AI Datacenter Ecosystem ETF (NYSEARCA: HUMM) with a net expense ratio of 0.49 percent, intended to represent the new AI-driven economy.
- Spenser Lerner from Harbor Capital estimates that hyperscalers and data center operators will invest roughly one trillion US dollars in AI infrastructure through the end of the decade, which constitutes the first phase of the AI boom.
- Harbor Capital's commercial interests raise questions: the firm sells ETF products that directly benefit from its own argument about the breakdown of traditional indicators.
- Experiments with ChatGPT as an investment advisor showed mixed results: a June 2023 test achieved approximately six percent return in roughly three weeks, but experts warn of parallels to earlier speculation waves such as the GameStop hype.
In November 2022, OpenAI released the AI chatbot platform ChatGPT. What initially seemed a technological milestone marks, according to Harbor Capital Advisors, a fundamental break in how financial markets function. Kristof Gleich, president and chief investment officer of the firm, argues that established economic indicators lost their role as reliable stock market forecasts from that point onward.
Thesis on the Collapse of Predictive Power
Gleich cites the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) as the central example – a survey on factory activity development that showed strong correlation with the S&P 500 for decades. The PMI measures monthly sentiment among purchasing managers in manufacturing and is considered a leading indicator for economic conditions. After November 2022, this historical relationship diverged: the PMI remained relatively stable while the market rose significantly. 24/7 Wall St. notes that this divergence thesis could not be independently verified.
"The AI economy requires different frameworks, different benchmarks, new metrics and frankly a different language to describe, measure and invest in it," Gleich explained according to Harbor Capital Advisors. The argument runs: traditional industrial indicators do not adequately capture the value creation of software, data centers and cloud infrastructure.
New ETFs as Response to Diagnosed Market Shift
Harbor Capital Advisors responded to its own analysis by launching new fund products. The most prominent is the 800VDC AI Datacenter Ecosystem ETF (NYSEARCA: HUMM) with a net expense ratio of 0.49 percent. The fund aims to represent companies in the AI data center ecosystem – from chip manufacturers to cooling systems to power suppliers for data centers.
The product development raises questions about commercial interests. 24/7 Wall St. puts it bluntly: "Harbor's argument is real. So is the commercial interest behind it." The firm sells ETFs that directly benefit from its own thesis that old indicators no longer work and new investment instruments are needed.
One Trillion US Dollars for AI Infrastructure
Spenser Lerner, head of multi-asset solutions at Harbor Capital, divides the AI boom into two phases. The first phase encompasses infrastructure development through the end of the decade. Hyperscalers – providers of massive cloud computing capacity such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure or Google Cloud – and data center operators are investing roughly one trillion US dollars in AI infrastructure, according to Lerner's estimates. This sum flows into high-performance chips, specialized cooling systems, power supply and network infrastructure.
The second phase, which Lerner mentions, Harbor Capital does not describe in detail. It is said to contain inflationary components, but details on timing or concrete characteristics are lacking.
ChatGPT as Investment Advisor: Experiments and Recommendations
Parallel to the debate on market indicators, German financial media tested ChatGPT over 2023 and 2024 as an investment advisor. In December 2025, the AI presented concrete individual stock recommendations – with explicit notice that these do not constitute buy recommendations:
- Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT): The cloud and AI platform with Azure and Copilot has strong capital strength. ChatGPT justifies the mention with the broad, high-margin platform and sustained AI leverage. The price-to-earnings ratio is above 30, the AI does not provide valuation details.
- ASML (EURONEXT/NASDAQ: ASML): The Dutch semiconductor equipment maker holds a quasi-monopolistic position in EUV lithography for cutting-edge chips. ChatGPT characterizes ASML as "picks and shovels in the semiconductor cycle" with high technological barriers to entry. Criticism: extreme volatility and strong dependence on the chip cycle.
- Nestlé (SIX: NESN): The defensive consumer goods portfolio offers a stable dividend and global brand position. Criticism: The stock has stagnated for years, margins are under pressure, growth is modest.
- LVMH (Euronext Paris: MC): The leading luxury group with over 70 brands benefits from structural growth in the luxury segment, strong brands and high margins, according to ChatGPT.
ChatGPT emphasizes it may not provide personal investment advice. The AI offers "general standard building blocks" for long-term portfolios. Observers criticize that ChatGPT tends to focus on well-known names rather than undervalued positions and ignores valuation details.
Experiments with Mixed Results
An experiment from June 2023 tested ChatGPT's ETF selection in the AI sector. In roughly three weeks, the portfolio achieved approximately six percent return. Yet experts who took a stance on AI stock ETFs as early as April 2023 warned against euphoria. They compared the enthusiasm with earlier speculation waves such as the GameStop hype and warned of possible significant corrections after meteoric rises.
Following ChatGPT's prominence in November 2022, several ETF providers, including WisdomTree, developed AI-focused funds. The wave of enthusiasm for the AI sector began immediately after the launch and continues to this day.
Market Environment and Technical Classification
On October 2, 2026, the S&P 500 was trading at 7,722.72 points, up 0.73 percent. The NASDAQ Composite stood at 27,190.86 points (+1.19 percent), the DAX at 25,273 points (+1.16 percent). These levels provide current context for Harbor Capital's argument that traditional indicators have not adequately captured market developments since November 2022.
Critical Appraisal: Data and Interests
Harbor Capital Advisors presents a clear thesis: ChatGPT's launch fundamentally changed market dynamics. Yet the central claim – the divergence between PMI and S&P 500 after November 2022 – has so far not been independently confirmed. The firm simultaneously sells products that benefit from this argument. The 800VDC AI Datacenter Ecosystem ETF positions itself as a solution to a problem Harbor itself diagnosed.
Whether traditional indicators have truly lost their validity or whether the period since late 2022 represents a cyclical anomaly cannot be conclusively determined with available data. The investment estimate of roughly one trillion US dollars for AI infrastructure through the end of the decade comes exclusively from Harbor Capital itself.
ChatGPT as an investment advisor remains an experimental tool. The AI provides standard recommendations with established names, but ignores valuation levels and delivers no analysis of risk-return profiles. For retail investors in the German-speaking region: AI tools can help with information gathering, but do not replace personal analysis or professional advice.