Oil Price Surge: Iran Crisis Threatens Strait of Hormuz – Energy Stocks That Could Benefit

Iran's Revolutionary Guards have effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026, according to news agency AFP. The narrow strait, only around 50 kilometers wide, is one of the world's most important routes for global oil trade. Several major oil companies and trading houses have already suspended transport through this strategically significant passage.

The blockade has triggered massive price increases for oil and gas on world markets and fuels fears of a new energy crisis. The reaction follows a classic crisis pattern: in addition to rising oil prices, gold and other commodities have also recorded significant gains. For investors in the DACH region, the question arises as to which energy stocks could benefit from this development.

Oil Price Forecasts: Brent Could Rise to 91 US Dollars

BloombergNEF forecasts that in the event of a sustained crisis, the Brent oil price could rise to 91 US dollars per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2026. This assessment is consistent with expectations from Goldman Sachs, which also expects a sustained crisis without drastic damage.

The ifo Institute in Munich considers two different scenarios for economic impacts. In the de-escalation scenario, the conflict ends quickly and increases in crude oil and natural gas remain temporary. The escalation scenario, by contrast, assumes a significantly longer conflict with a sharper and more persistent rise in energy prices. The already substantial increases in crude oil and natural gas prices are dampening economic recovery.

Financial Markets React with Volatility

In March 2026, uncertainty and volatility dominated financial markets. The DAX closed at 23,731 points with gains, while the ZEW Index collapsed. European markets mostly struggled with losses, with financial markets reacting to tensions with a geopolitical risk premium.

A positive exception is tech and energy stocks, which show recovery potential despite the difficult market environment. While the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has negative consequences for consumers and much of the economy, energy companies could benefit from the higher prices.

Which Energy Stocks Could Benefit

In principle, oil and gas producers benefit from rising commodity prices as they can sell their production volumes at higher prices. Companies with production facilities outside the crisis region have an advantage since they can continue their production unimpeded while supply is constrained by the blocked strait.

For investors in the DACH region, several considerations arise: European energy companies with diversified production facilities benefit from higher prices, but also face the risk of rising costs and regulatory intervention. The EU Commission has already called on member states to reduce consumption of fossil fuels – a measure that could dampen demand in the long term.

International oil companies with significant production in North America, the North Sea, or other regions could benefit particularly. They increase their revenues through higher prices while their production costs remain largely stable. However, investors should note that valuations of many energy stocks have already risen and some of the positive development is likely already priced in.

Do Not Underestimate Risks for Investors

The current situation carries considerable uncertainties. A rapid de-escalation would cause oil prices to fall again and put pressure on energy stocks. There is also the risk that a prolonged energy crisis will slow the global economy and dampen demand for oil and gas.

The geopolitical risk premium currently priced into the oil price can dissolve quickly. Investors should also keep in mind that currency fluctuations can affect returns – particularly for investors from Switzerland, Germany, or Austria in energy stocks traded in US dollars.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the decisive factor for further developments. As long as the blockade continues, oil prices are likely to remain elevated and support energy stocks. A resumption of shipping traffic, on the other hand, would provide rapid relief. Investors should reassess the situation daily and should not rely on a long-term continuation of the current crisis situation.