Apple iPhone 18 Launch: Why Evercore Sees a Better Upgrade Cycle

Evercore ISI raised its price target for Apple to $380 on September 18, 2026, and reaffirmed its Outperform rating. The stock was trading at $337 at the time of the adjustment, close to its 52-week high of $344.57, and had gained 35 percent over the preceding six months.

Extended Delivery Times Signal Higher Demand

Evercore's analysts base their positive assessment on an analysis of delivery times since pre-orders began on September 12, 2026. The average delivery time for the iPhone 18 Pro stands at 16 days, compared to 12 days the previous year. In the United States and United Kingdom, the earliest delivery time is 15 days – a year prior it was seven and twelve days respectively. Germany is seeing 16 days of wait time versus twelve days in the year before.

For the iPhone 18 Pro Max, delivery times are even more pronounced: the average wait time is 25 days, compared to 19 days the previous year. US and UK customers must reckon with 22 days, whereas it was twelve days a year ago. In Germany, delivery time stands at 23 days.

China and Japan present a different picture: delivery times remain largely in line with the previous year, sometimes reaching up to 30 days. China shows 17 days wait time for the Pro model compared to 32 days the previous year, which points to weaker relative demand or higher production allocation.

Consumer Survey Indicates Increased Replacement Demand

Evercore ISI released results of an annual survey among nearly 4,000 consumers on September 18, 2026. 53 percent of respondents said they plan to buy an iPhone 18 Pro or Pro Max – this exceeds the average of 51 percent. 32 percent are specifically planning to purchase the Pro Max, compared to 29 percent a year ago.

As the primary motivation for purchase, 67 percent of participants cited that their existing iPhone is old and needs to be replaced. A year ago, this figure was 48 percent. The average age of devices in use is 23.5 months, compared to 26.5 months a year earlier. The shortened usage duration suggests consumers are upgrading sooner.

For the new foldable model iPhone Duo, available starting at $1,999 with pre-orders beginning on October 16, 2026, 14 percent of respondents expressed purchase intent. A year ago, only 9 percent had shown interest in the then-current iPhone Air. Evercore expects demand for the Duo could rise in the fourth quarter once customers can test the device in retail.

Analysts Divided on Valuation and Margins

Beyond Evercore, other research houses weighed in on Apple stock. Bank of America Securities lowered its price target from $380 to $370 with an unchanged Buy rating, citing margin pressure from higher memory and component costs. At the same time, BofA highlighted that mobile carriers are offering trade-in discounts up to $1,200 for the iPhone 18 Pro Max to cushion the increased device prices for customers.

UBS reaffirmed a Neutral rating with a $296 price target following the announcement of the iPhone Duo. Melius Research maintains a Buy rating with a $370 price target and expressed optimism about the Duo's revenue potential.

InvestingPro rated Apple as overvalued on September 18, 2026, and included the company on its list of the most overvalued tech companies. At the same time, the platform credited Apple with a "strong" financial health score. 13 analysts revised their earnings estimates downward in mid-September.

Accessory Demand and Upcoming Product Launches

The Evercore survey also captured purchase intentions for Apple accessories. 38 percent of respondents plan to buy an Apple Watch, compared to 34 percent a year ago. Interest is concentrated on the Series 12. For AirPods, 43 percent expressed purchase intentions versus 40 percent the previous year.

Apple announced in August 2026 that it may not bring the standard iPhone 18 to market until spring 2027 – a significant departure from the usual fall launch. The iPhone Duo, with its foldable display and $1,999 price point, marks a new product category in the iPhone portfolio.

Financial Metrics and Market Environment

Apple's revenue stood at $435.6 billion according to reports from March 2026, with a market capitalization of $4.51 trillion. The stock gained 22.5 percent year-to-date and was trading at $334.44 on September 15, 2026.

On September 18, 2026, global markets showed mixed movements: the S&P 500 declined 0.19 percent to 7,626.88 points, while the DAX corrected more sharply, falling 1.39 percent to 25,300 points. Apple shares benefited from the positive analyst sentiment and continued trading near their yearly highs.